AI capital expenditure represents roughly 3% of US GDP but has driven approximately half of US economic growth in the first half of the year, according to StoneX Chief Market Strategist Kathryn Rooney Vera. Without AI capex, underlying growth would be closer to 1.5%. Vera argues the Federal Reserve made the right call holding rates steady and disputes the view that rate hikes would substantially slow AI financing.
She warns that aggressive rate increases into 2027 would be a mistake given consumer pressure, and flags a significant downside risk: if AI spending slows at the same time the Fed is tightening policy, the combination could create a damaging economic double whammy.
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