Anthropic's IPO challenge isn't valuation—it's the next two years, venture exec says

In a video discussion, Jared Carmel, co-founder of Manhattan Venture Partners, a $3.7 billion venture secondaries platform, argues that Anthropic's planned IPO should be priced well below the $2 trillion valuations discussed in recent market speculation. He contends that AI company valuations have been inflated for years and that realistic pricing matters more than hitting a headline number.

Carmel also flags a shift in AI spending: investment is moving from foundational models toward open-weight alternatives, a trend that could pressure proprietary model companies. He compares Anthropic's situation to OpenAI's decision not to go public this year and notes that even well-capitalized AI companies face execution challenges ahead.

The discussion touches on broader trends in AI financing and market dynamics as major AI startups approach or consider public markets.